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Chilton Trust 4Q19 Commentary
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Chilton Trust 3Q19 Commentary
Chilton Trust devotes significant resources to maintaining the security of our networks, systems and software, including robust security for our email and online portal and app. We are committed to protecting our clients, and as part of this effort, we want to ensure that you are personally doing all that you can to protect yourselves and your families from potential cyber threats. Download the PDF for some basic tips and reminders to help lower your vulnerability and maintain awareness.
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Federal Reserve Rate Cuts
An Overreaction to a Test of Yield Curve Inversion
There has been a lot of concern about the inverted Treasury yield curve and the historical belief that it portends an actual economic recession. Our central case is that the concern about the inversion is an overreaction, driven from a misunderstanding of some of the key factors that have triggered the inversion. We expect the Fed will cut rates further this year, potentially at the September meeting and even perhaps an additional cut at the December meeting. We continue to believe that such additional rate accommodation will be supportive of continued US economic growth–not a recession.
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Chilton Trust 2Q19 Commentary
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Chilton Trust 1Q19 Commentary
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2019 Chilton Trust Fixed Income Outlook
Timothy W.A. Horan, Chief Investment Officer—Fixed Income, recently sat down with Louisa M. Ives, Head of Manager Research to discuss current economic conditions and Chilton Trust’s outlook for fixed income markets this year.
L: As we think about the outlook and investment opportunities for 2019, what are your expectations for global growth?
T: We’re seeing a slowdown globally as we start 2019. Last year was a year of synchronized global growth right from the beginning. In the end, it did not actually come to fruition, and the seeds for the slowdown that we’re seeing this year were already sowed. We are certainly seeing additional weakness in Europe, in Asia and even here in the US. In Europe, it’s coming from an outright recession that’s happening in Italy and a marked slowdown in Germany, which has been the lead economy in Europe. Germany has been much more affected by the slowdown in China than what was originally thought. One third of Germany’s GDP is net exports. We’re also seeing some big concerns with what happens to Europe internally after Britain leaves at the end of March. So, those questions are really preoccupying what’s going on in Europe right now. Having just ended their version of quantitative easing at the end of December, the European Central bank will no longer be buying bonds.
Thanks to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (the “Act”) which passed in December 2017, you have a considerably greater opportunity to minimize your tax liability when transferring wealth to future generations.